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On certainty: Truth is the Daughter of Time
This comment from Dr. Robert Brown at Duke University is elevated from a comment to a full post for further discussion. Since we have a new paper (Shepherd et al) that is being touted in the media as...
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Aerosols from Moderate Volcanos Now Blamed for Global Warming Hiatus
While looking for quotes on an upcoming post about Ocean Heat Content, I ran across the press release for a new paper (in press) by Neely et al, which blames the recent slowdown in global warming on...
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Kevin Trenberth struggles mightily to explain the lack of global warming
Tom Nelson captures this delicious irony, apparently it isn’t a travesty any more, it’s the sun. Has Global Warming Stalled? | Royal Meteorological Society [Trenberth] “Warming” really means heating,...
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Another uncertainty for climate models – different results on different...
New peer reviewed paper finds the same global forecast model produces different results when run on different computers Did you ever wonder how spaghetti like this is produced and why there is broad...
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Nine Lessons and Carols in Communicating Climate Uncertainty
Tamsin Edwards has a new essay on uncertainty, here is an excerpt: About a month ago I was invited to represent the Cabot Institute at the All Parliamentary Party Climate Change Group (APPCCG) meeting...
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Lewandowsky says we must fear uncertainty, and act on it, because, science
Guest essay by Eric Worrall Stephan Lewandowsky (of retracted Recursive Fury fame ) has just released a paper supporting the “precautionary principle” (h/t JoNova). According to Lewandowsky, the more...
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Lovejoy’s 99% ‘confidence’ vs. measurement uncertainty
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley It is time to be angry at the gruesome failure of peer review that allows publication of papers, such as the recent effusion of Professor Lovejoy of McGill...
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UN IPCC AR5 climate reports: Conjecture disguised as certainty
UN IPCC WG report process fails to integrate critical information Guest essay by Larry Hamlin The world has experienced over the last 15+ years a remarkable absence of increasing global temperatures...
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Lewandowsky on ‘leakage’
No smear psychological categorization mission is too offbeat for Lew. Now he’s on about “leakage”. Try to stifle the images that conjures up while thinking about your choice of preventative...
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New Report Urges Cost-Effective Adaptation To Sea-Level Change
Policies That Try To Stop ‘Global’ Sea-Level Rise Are Costly & Ineffective A new report published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation stresses the importance of revising the current...
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Study: sea level rise acceleration still uncertain, we won’t have statistical...
This is a bit of a bombshell to those that claim sea level rise is accelerating and certain. From the University of Southampton: Back to the future to determine if sea level rise is accelerating...
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A trifecta of uncertainty: study finds global precipitation is increasing,...
This story from the Hockey Schtick is a verification of an analysis on WUWT from Bob Tisdale: No Consensus among Three Global Precipitation Datasets According to a paper published today in Atmospheric...
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‘Climate models not only significantly over-predict observed warming in the...
New Paper by McKitrick and Vogelsang comparing models and observations in the tropical troposphere This is a guest post by Ross McKitrick (at Climate Audit). Tim Vogelsang and I have a new paper...
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BEST practices step uncertainty levels in their climate data
Brandon Shollenberger writes in with this little gem: I thought you might be interested in a couple posts I wrote discussing some odd problems with the BEST temperature record. You can find them here:...
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The ‘uncertainty monster’ bites back at IPCC scientists
WUWT readers may recall this paper from Dr. Judith Curry where the “uncertainty monster” was given life. The uncertainty monster has bitten back. It seems that the IPCC botched more than just AR5 in...
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Nassim Taleb Strikes Again
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Following up on his brilliant earlier work “The Black Swan”, Taleb has written a paper called Error, Dimensionality, and Predictability (draft version). I could not even...
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Quote of the Week: ‘Climate Hawk’ says [it’s] ‘insane to try to predict...
WUWT readers may remember ultra climate activist David Roberts, a self described “climate hawk” who wrote regularly for Grist, and became so burned out he had to take a year off from the “climate wars”...
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Chaos & Climate – Part 2: Chaos = Stability
Guest Essay by Kip Hansen “…we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”...
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The ‘uncertainty monster’ bites back at IPCC scientists
WUWT readers may recall this paper from Dr. Judith Curry where the “uncertainty monster” was given life. The uncertainty monster has bitten back. It seems that the IPCC botched more than just AR5 in...
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Modern Scientific Controversies Part 1: The Salt Wars
This is the first in a series of several essays that will discuss ongoing scientific controversies, a specific type of which are often referred to in the science press and elsewhere as “Wars” – for...
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